August brought softer sales numbers but steady inventory, with signs that inspectors should keep a close eye on pipelines heading into the fall.
Sales and inventory
- Existing home sales totaled 376,000 in August, down –3.3% from July and –0.8% YoY
- Year-to-date sales are down –1.2% (with July revised by +1,000)
- Inventory held at 1.53 million homes, flat month-over-month but up +9.5% YoY
- Months’ supply stayed at 4.6, signaling balanced but cooling conditions.
Contracts and pricing
- HouseCanary reports 296,630 homes went under contract, up +10.7% YoY
- Price cuts surged +22% YoY, the largest increase since 2020
- The national median existing home price hit $422,600, a +2.0% YoY gain
- Regional performance was mixed: Midwest (+4.5%) and Northeast (+6.2%) led, while the West was nearly flat (+0.6%)
- Median closed price rose +3.0% YoY to $442,427
Mortgage rates
- Mortgage rates averaged 6.8% in Q3
- Rates dipped to 6.17% in September, then climbed to 6.34% following the Fed’s rate cut
- Forecasts call for rates to gradually ease toward 6.5-6.4% by early 2026
Current forecasts
Forecasts for 2025 Home Sales (September’25 forecast)
- *NAR: +3.0% (4.18 million existing home sales vs. 4.06 million)
- MBA: +1.3% (4.82 million total home sales vs. 4.76 million)
- Fannie: -0.5% (4.72 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
Forecasts for 2026 Home Sales (September’25 forecast)
- *NAR: +14.0% (4.77 million existing home sales vs. 4.18 million)
- MBA: +5.5% (5.09 million total home sales vs. 4.82 million)
- Fannie: +9.2% (5.16 million total home sales vs. 4.72 million)
MBA Forecast for Mortgage Originations (September’25 forecast)
- 2025** Total Mortgage Originations: +24.0% (5.67 million loans vs. 4.57 million)
- Purchase: -2.7% (3.43 million loans vs. 3.53 million)
- Refi: +113.7% (2.24 million vs. 1.05 million)
- 2026 Total Mortgage Originations: +10.2% (6.24 million loans vs. 5.67 million)
- Purchase: +5.6% (3.62 million loans vs. 3.43 million)
- Refi: +15.9% (2.59 million vs. 2.4 million)
* NAR forecast is from July 2025
What it means for inspectors
For inspectors, the story is mixed but steady. While closed sales slipped, contracts are trending higher – which means inspection demand is still flowing. Inventory growth is giving buyers more options, and with price cuts on the rise, sellers are motivated to close deals quickly. That urgency often translates to faster timelines and more inspections on short notice.
Regional differences also matter: inspectors in the Midwest and Northeast are likely to see stronger activity than those in flatter Western markets. And the forecasts for 2026 – with NAR, MBA, and Fannie Mae all projecting gains – suggest inspectors who stay visible with agents now will be well-positioned when volumes climb again.