Let’s get straight to what the July housing data means for your inspection operation. Sales cooled off from June’s pace, and mortgage rate forecasts show rates potentially increasing.
Here’s what your inspection team should know:
Per the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales totaled 400,000 in July, down -5.7% from a revised June figure of 424,000 (up from the initially reported 422,000), but still up +2.8% year over year compared to July 2025’s 389,000. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) came in at 4.06 million, down -1.7% from a revised June figure of 4.13 million, but still up +0.7% versus a year ago.
Supply tightened alongside the sales pullback. NAR counted 1.54 million units of housing inventory in July, or 4.6 months of supply, down -1.9% from June and down -0.6% year over year. Fewer homes on the market alongside softer sales points to buyers and sellers both moving more cautiously heading into fall.
National median pricing held firm at $434,100, up +2.0% year over year, marking the 37th consecutive month of annual price gains.
On the financing side, Fannie Mae raised its 30-year mortgage rate forecast to an average of 6.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, up from last month’s 6.3% estimate, while the Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates averaging 6.7% in both years. NAR’s own sales forecast is unchanged and isn’tdue for its next quarterly update until October.
Current Forecasts
Forecasts for 2026 Home Sales (August ’26 forecast)
- NAR: +4.0% (4.22 million existing home sales vs. 4.06 million), revised April 2026
- MBA: +1.8% (4.84 million total home sales vs. 4.76 million)
- Fannie Mae: -0.3% (4.74 million total home sales vs. 4.75 million)
Forecasts for 2027 Home Sales (August ’26 forecast)
- MBA: +4.5% (5.06 million total home sales vs. 4.84 million)
- Fannie Mae: +4.3% (4.94 million total home sales vs. 4.74 million)
MBA Forecast for Mortgage Originations (August ’26 forecast)
- 2026 Total Mortgage Originations: +11.4% (5.62 million loans vs. 5.04 million)
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- Purchase: -0.1% (3.58 million loans vs. 3.59 million)
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- Refi: +39.7% (2.03 million vs. 1.46 million)
- 2027 Total Mortgage Originations: -0.9% (5.56 million loans vs. 5.62 million)
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- Purchase: +3.4% (3.70 million loans vs. 3.58 million)
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- Refi: -8.6% (1.86 million vs. 2.03 million)
Bottom line for multi-inspector teams
The current data points to a market that’s cooling from its summer peak but still ahead of last year. Sales dipped from June, inventory tightened right alongside it, and mortgage rate forecasts crept higher for the first time in months. That combination calls for tighter forecasting rather than a bigger roster.
With the MBA projecting a +39.7% jump in refi originations for 2026, even as purchase originations stay essentially flat, expect a shift in the mix of calls your team fields. Teams with flexible routing and clear communication will be best positioned to handle whatever combination of purchase and refi-driven inspections comes their way.